Crisis or Creative Conflict?

In a week when the Socialist opposition announced it will escalate its protests and possibly resume its boycott of parliament, Albania is marking the one-year anniversary of the political standoff that has paralyzed the country since last summer with no clear resolution in sight.

Whether or not a situation marked by the defeated parties’ stubborn rejection of the 28 June 2009 election results and a months-long boycott of parliament is a “crisis” has provided fuel for endless debate, and disagreement over the use of that word in political rhetoric has become part of the problem. The government headed by Sali Berisha’s rightist Democratic Party insists there is no crisis, and the opposition naturally claims the opposite. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, which stepped in to try to depolarize the situation, discussed the issue and ultimately agreed that “crisis” was the appropriate term.

Whatever epithet is used to describe it, one thing is certain: a year of political deadlock has wasted valuable time that could have been used to initiate further progress for this small southeastern European country with big EU dreams.

PARADOXICAL PROGRESS

Even as parliamentary foes dug in for a sustained battle, Albania was taking strides toward what it hopes will be eventual EU membership. The government pushed ahead with the application process – Berisha personally delivered the pre-accession questionnaire to Brussels in April – and may soon be able to declare the achievement of visa-free travel to the Schengen zone. Although the European Parliament last week passed a resolution in support of Albania's request for visa liberalization, the union’s decision has been postponed until September and Albania has been urged to put an end to its political deadlock.

Even if the union were not divided over the pace of future expansion, Albania’s familiar bugbears – corruption, political meddling in the judiciary and media – combined with the unsatisfactory state of affairs in parliament would render Berisha's bid to join the EU very wishful thinking for years to come.

“Without this conflict, Albania would have the prospect of joining in the next eight or 10 years. Albania has lost a year already. The prospects of membership are moving farther down into the future,” says Gabriel Partos, an analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Not that the country has been standing still: Albania achieved a long-sought goal when it joined NATO in early 2009. However, the country's inability to successfully conduct elections that meet international standards and the still-unresolved deadlock between the two political sides are signs of regression rather than advancement and paint a portrait of Albania as a state unable to solve its internal conflicts without outsourcing them to the international community. The question that remains is what is the next step for Albania. Indeed, it could be a decision made outside the country that will serve as a catalyst for some sort of solution.

Winning visa-free travel to the EU would mark a tangible and universally popular step toward eventual EU membership for this Balkan country, as it did last year for Serbia, Macedonia, and Montenegro. Simplified travel to the union has been so central for Albanians that Berisha placed the issue at the heart of his campaign during the parliamentary elections, promising to lead Albania into the Schengen zone as he did into NATO. If visa requirements are lifted in the coming months, Berisha's administration would be further legitimized not only in the international community but also in the eyes of many Albanians. The accomplishment would dampen the opposition's fervor, although opposition members insist they will not back down from their demands to take another look at the outcome of last year’s elections. Partos also predicts that the EU “might be leaned on to present [visa liberalization] in such a way that both sides can claim credit.” On the other hand, if the political deadlock serves to further postpone a positive resolution on visas, it might well inspire Berisha’s party to consider a compromise with the opposition.

A SPOTTY RECORD

The dispute that has paralyzed the Albanian parliament began when the Socialist opposition, with Tirana Mayor Edi Rama at the helm, refused to accept the results of last year’s elections, making accusations of fraud and demanding recounts in some voting districts. After voting, the Democratic Party, led by former President Berisha, formed a coalition government with the Socialist Movement for Integration of the former prime minister and current deputy prime minister, Ilir Meta. Rama’s Socialists and their allies, who won a combined 66 seats in the 140-member body, boycotted the parliament until February and some Socialist lawmakers even embarked on a hunger strike.

International observers partly shared the opposition’s concerns over the voting. The OSCE said that the elections did not meet all international requirements; indeed, the organization has found fault in one way or another with every parliamentary vote held in democratic Albania.

First the boycott, then the opposition’s refusal to participate in normal parliamentary business, rendered the legislature unable to proceed in harmonizing Albanian law with EU standards, for which a three-fifths majority vote is required. Even after three meetings under international mediation between Rama and Berisha in Brussels and Strasbourg, no solution was found. A spokesman for the Socialist Party has warned again this week that the opposition will escalate its protests against the election outcome and might boycott parliament once again.

With all this to deal with, one wonders how Berisha described the situation on his EU questionnaire. Perhaps the 1,200 Albanian and 30 international experts that Balkan Insight reports were employed to complete the questionnaire found a way to paint a rosy picture for Brussels.