A King's Comeback

As Bulgarians head to the ballot boxes this weekend, the polls are putting former king Simeon II well out in front of the pack. by Konstantin Vulkov 14 June 2001 SOFIA, Bulgaria--The elections in Bulgaria on 17 June could herald the return of the king. Only this time he will not be the king, but the leader of a political party. Crowned in 1943 at the age of six, deposed three years later, and exiled by the communists for decades, former king Simeon II is trying to make a grandiose political comeback in his former kingdom--and he has a good chance of pulling it off.

After having spent most of his life in exile as a businessman in Spain, the ex-king has returned to Bulgaria to lead the Simeon II National Movement (NDSV). The most recent opinion poll taken on 12 June put the NDSV way ahead of the other parties with 38 percent. The governing United Democratic Forces and the opposition Socialist-led Coalition for Bulgaria were running neck-and-neck at 17 and 16 percent, respectively. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which represents the country's Turkish minority, was running at 3.5 percent.

The NDSV's current popularity in the polls is impressive for a party that was formed as recently as April and registered less than 10 percent in the polls at the outset. Using a combination of grandiose promises and tough criticism of the government, Simeon's party seems to have touched a chord with many Bulgarians. While the government has managed to achieve relative financial stability through the introduction of the currency board and the economy itself grew at a robust 5.8 percent in 2000, daily life remains difficult for many average Bulgarians. Unemployment is currently running at 18.5 percent and wages for public sector employees remain low. Moreover, the performance of the government has been overshadowed by a sequence of corruption scandals.

Simeon has said he will apply the business skills he has developed in the private sector to the Bulgarian economy. The former monarch has promised to raise living standards by shaping up the economy and cutting unemployment, banish political partisanship in the country, and stamp out corruption with tough new regulations and institutions. One of the cornerstones of his program is a promise to hand out low or zero-interest credits to small and medium-sized companies.

"I am ready to propose a scheme of economic measures through which the famous Bulgarian industriousness and entrepreneurial spirit will transform our lives within 800 days," the former monarch announced with much fanfare on 6 April at the former royal seat of Bulgarian kings in Vranya.

While critics have argued that Simeon's program is long on promises and short on details of how he plans to implement them, many Bulgarians seem ready to give him a chance--if for no other reason then because he seems like a fresh face on the political scene after 10 years of economic difficulties and tales of corruption.

But Simeon's campaign has not been without problems, especially when it came out that eight candidates on his electoral list had links with the communist-era secret police. Simeon promptly jettisoned them, but some observers have argued that the incident indicated that the former monarch may have trouble finding the right people to form a cabinet if his party wins power. Simeon has been keeping his cards close to his chest about his plans for the future government and his own role in it. The ex-king has not made it clear who will serve as prime minister if the NDSV wins and some rumors suggest that the party might opt for Sofia Mayor Stefan Sofianski as its candidate for prime minister.

A COALITION LOOKS LIKELY

In any case, it is probable that the next government will have to be formed by a coalition of parties, as not even Simeon's party is likely to win enough seats to form a majority in parliament. What is more, the 12 June poll by the MBMD also showed that with just days left before the voting begins, about one-quarter of the public is still undecided.

With such a large swing vote, the other parties still have a good chance of putting in a strong showing at the ballot box. The governing and center-right ODS enjoys considerable support in the key Bulgarian cities of Sofia, Plovdiv, and Varna. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, the ODS has portrayed itself as a committed pro-European party focused on the goal of getting the country into NATO and the European Union.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the Coalition for Bulgaria is a collection of leftist forces, including the main opposition and ex-communist Bulgarian Socialist Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Movement of Social Democrats, the United Labor Bloc, and various other parties and civic movements. The coalition has focused its campaign on criticisms of the economic hardships associated with the government's economic reforms.

Finally, the DPS has suggested it might cast doubt on the election results if the rights of Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish citizens who are currently living in Turkey are not respected at the ballot box. While the Central Electoral Commission has promised to open more than 40 polling stations in Turkey, DPS leader Ahmed Dogan--whose party has been polling dangerously close to the 4-percent-threshold necessary to win seats in parliament--has called for dozens more.

Simeon's party has insisted that it would seek a coalition with like-minded parties, and has named the governing ODS as a potential partner. "If there is a need to form a coalition, it will be on the basis of principles. We will never give up our support of development of the capital markets," NDSV official Nikolai Vasilev told journalists.

The governing ODS has been somewhat more coy about its preferred coalition partners after the election. Asked about the possibility of a governing coalition with the NDSV after the 17 June elections, Kostov said on 22 May: "We have to be sure that any partner of ours would go all the way in Bulgaria's pursuit of membership in the EU and NATO. We do not need partners who will erode the confidence that the country enjoys and who may increase the risk for investments in Bulgaria. After the elections, if we do not put in place a strong government, if we do not form a government which will keep the confidence Bulgaria enjoys, we will be unable to attain our major goal--employment and security for all."

With just days left before the election, Kostov was putting a brave face on his party's chances of staying in power after the vote. During a special TV appearance on 11 June in Slavi's Show, the leading late night entertainment program in Bulgaria, Kostov concluded: "Anyway, the ODS will win."